The Hype Cycle

Anyone else out there getting tired of clarion calls for the death of the agency in favor of consumer-generated-media? Here's an excerpt from Gartner's hype-cycle. We're just about at phase two right now. So this isn't to say that CGM is without merits, just that we are a long ways from understanding how to use it properly.

1. Technology Trigger
   The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations
   In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
3. Trough of Disillusionment
   Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
4. Slope of Enlightenment
   Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
5. Plateau of Productivity
   A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

The media has been claiming advertising and marketing are dead for decades. As I commented on one blog - if necessity is the mother of invention then our greatest innovations are often born at the point of failure. We can either toss our hands in the air and quit or work through this disruptive new medium and understand how to use it in a professional and productive way.

It won't be a short process or an easy ride but I think it'll be worth it.